Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
