Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
